Striding into a new age of radical uncertainty

For editors, one of the most tempting headlines to write when devastating or shocking events happen—such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine—is to say that the world has changed. Generally this has the merit of some truth. What is harder to say is how that will happen, or where the changes might lead. That is especially so now, when Russia’s new imperialism has followed a series of similarly world-changing shocks.

At such times, the right conclusion is not that a new or well-defined world order is being created as many predicted. A new Cold War or a bipolar world divided into two clear camps has not materialised. Rather, the new shock has broken old assumptions and widened the range of possible paths that the world might take.

Instead of grasping for new certainties, we need to accept that we are in an age of quite radical uncertainty, one…